What Anthropic Employees Should Do Before Your IPO

Key Takeaways:

• Determine how concentrated you are in your Anthropic equity. If you are 90% concentrated in Anthropic vs. 10%, then you need to figure out a plan for your equity since it makes up most of your net worth.
• Decide when you can and should sell your Anthropic equity.  Identify near-term valid cash needs, decide how much Anthropic equity you want to hold long-term, and decide on a selling plan.
• Minimize taxes when you sell. ISOs, NSOs, and RSUs have different tax treatments, and you need to understand those differences to minimize taxes when you sell.

 

Anthropic’s June 2026 confidential draft Form S-1 submission makes the IPO conversation more immediate, even though the share count, price range, and final timing have not been set.¹ The filing gives Anthropic a path toward going public after SEC review, with the offering still subject to market conditions and other factors. 

For employees, that means equity compensation may soon move from a planning concept to a real decision point. Taxes, lockups, liquidity, and investment choices can start arriving quickly, and the hardest decisions are usually easier to make before the calendar, share price, and trading rules are already in motion.

Determine How Concentrated You Are in Your Anthropic Equity

I talk to all of my clients who are tech employees with equity about the concept of a concentrated stock position, which means you own too much of a single company stock through your employee equity.

My general guideline is that if your Anthropic equity is more than 20% of your total investable assets, you are highly concentrated, and that should worry you because that means you’re taking a lot more risk compared to a diversified portfolio.

The true risk is illustrated by the story of Silicon Valley Bank, which was a bank that focused on working with tech startups and venture capital firms.  The bank completed its IPO in 1988, and the stock went up and up over the years until it reached over $700 per share.  Then, in early 2023, due in large part to poor risk management, the bank collapsed along with Silicon Valley Bank stock.

Unfortunately, there were employees who received up to 50% of their salaries in company stock.  One employee said that their Silicon Valley Bank stock had been worth more than a $1 million before the collapse, and now it was worthless.² 

The real risk of being too highly concentrated is that you can lose most of your net worth due to something completely beyond your control, as Silicon Valley Bank employees learned.

How to Calculate How Concentrated You Are in Your Anthropic Equity

The way to calculate how concentrated you are in your Anthropic Equity is straightforward.  First, calculate the total value of your vested Anthropic equity by multiplying your number of vested shares by the most recent per-share valuation.  

Second, calculate the total value of your investable assets by adding up your bank accounts, investment accounts, retirement accounts, and 401(k)s, and adding that to the total value of your vested Anthropic equity.  

Third, take the total value of your vested Anthropic equity and divide by the total value of your investable assets to get a percentage of concentration in Anthropic.  If your concentration is more than 20%, you are highly concentrated and should think seriously about reducing your concentration.  

The higher your Anthropic concentration, the more you need to come up with a plan for your Anthropic equity.  For example, if you are at 90% concentration in Anthropic, you should figure out what to do with your equity since it makes up most of your investable assets. 

Choosing to diversify is not making a negative statement about Anthropic’s technology, industry, revenue growth, core business, or future. It is simply a way to decide how much of your life should depend on one company, one market, and one stock price.

Measure Concentration Before Lockup Ends

Concentration should be measured before public trading volatility enters the picture. Once IPO stocks move daily, it becomes harder to separate your plan from the price action.

Your concentration review should include more than vested shares:

• Current exposure: Calculate the Anthropic exposure you have now as a percentage of total investable assets.
• Future exposure: Include unvested RSUs, future refreshers, salary, bonus, and career risk tied to the same employer.
• Minimum liquidity needs: Identify taxes, home purchase goals, family obligations, or other near-term cash needs.
• Target concentration range: Set a reasonable single-stock range based on goals, risk tolerance, and time horizon.
• Sell-to-target math: Work backward from the target percentage to estimate how much may need to be sold after liquidity opens.

Understand When You Can Sell Your Anthropic Equity

First, you want to understand when you can sell your Anthropic employee equity. This typically depends primarily on how Anthropic goes public. The way Anthropic goes public determines the length of the lockup period.  This information hasn’t been publicly disclosed by Anthropic yet.  Given that, a Traditional IPO and a Traditional IPO with Early Releases seem the most likely ways Anthropic will go public, but this won’t be known definitively until the information is publicly disclosed.

Lockup Period

Employees and other insiders are not allowed to sell their stock during a lockup period.  The rationale behind the lockup period is to keep employees and insiders from selling lots of shares and causing the stock price to go down.  The lockup period is important to you as an employee because you can’t sell your Anthropic equity until your lockup period ends.

Traditional IPO

The traditional IPO has a 180-day lockup period.  If Anthropic had its IPO today, you wouldn’t be able to sell any Anthropic shares for 180 days from today.

Traditional IPO with Early Releases

This type of IPO means that a company will allow you to sell a specific percentage of your vested shares at certain times during the lockup period.

For instance, if a company had its IPO today, it could let you sell up to 20% of your vested equity in the first week from today, which is called an early release.  Then the company could let you sell 100% of your vested equity after 180 days from today.  The details, including percentages and timing, vary by company and IPO.

Decide When You Should Sell Your Anthropic Equity

I use the framework below with my clients to help them develop a selling plan.

First, figure out if you have any near-term cash needs that you want to fund by selling your Anthropic equity as soon as you can to make sure you have the cash for those needs.

For example, you likely want to have cash to pay for taxes on your employee equity.  Another example would be if you know that you want to buy a house in the next year, you likely want to sell to raise the cash for your down payment.

Second, decide how much Anthropic equity you want to hold for the long term, which is more than five years.  Most of my clients believe in the long-term vision of the company they work for, and they want to keep a stake in that company.  I usually suggest they keep company stock at 10% of their total investable assets, but each client needs to decide what percentage they are comfortable with.  You need to decide what percentage of Anthropic you are comfortable holding.  After you decide that, set that Anthropic equity aside and don’t touch it for the long term.

Third, after you sell to fund near-term cash needs and set aside a percentage of your Anthropic equity, that leaves you with your remaining Anthropic equity.  There are a few selling strategies for selling your remaining Anthropic equity.

You could sell all of your Anthropic equity as soon as you are allowed to.  This selling strategy is simple, and you immediately reduce your Anthropic concentration.  However, you take the risk of selling on the wrong single day when the price is low.

Another selling strategy is to sell over time on a schedule. For example, you could sell 10% of your vested Anthropic equity every quarter for the next ten quarters or as soon as you’re allowed to start selling.  

By selling over time, you remove the risk of selling on the wrong single day since you’ll sell on multiple days at multiple prices.  You’re also able to control your taxes since you can spread your taxes over multiple years.  

Most of my clients love that this strategy minimizes emotions, but putting your selling on autopilot so that you don’t have to stress about whether you’re selling at the right time.

A third selling strategy is to sell over time on a schedule and sell more when the price is higher and less when the price is lower.  You can set price bands and sell percentages based on which price band the stock is in.  

For example, you could sell each quarter and decide that if the Anthropic stock price is >$100, you will sell 50% of your remaining Anthropic equity.  If the price is between $50 and $100, you will sell 25% of your remaining Anthropic equity.  If the price is <$50, you will sell 15% of your remaining Anthropic equity.  This strategy lets you sell more when the price is higher and less when the price is lower.  This also minimizes emotions since the selling is on autopilot based on the price and percentage.

Create Selling Rules Before You Are Allowed to Sell 

The first day Anthropic trades publicly may not be the first day you can sell. Lockups, blackout windows, trading policies, and insider restrictions can delay liquidity, which gives early employees time to decide how much risk they actually want to keep.

Use the waiting period to build a sell plan that can survive price movement:

• Set a first-window sale target before lockup expires.
• Decide how much may be sold in later windows so diversification does not depend on one trade.
• Sequence sales around basis, holding period, tax treatment, and cash needs.
• Consider a 10b5-1 plan if your role may limit when you can trade because of material nonpublic information.
• Put emotional guardrails in writing before the stock is rising, falling, or dominating every decision.

Anthropic Employees Should Understand What Type of Equity  You Have to Minimize Taxes

The best pre-IPO planning starts with your actual documents. Before you rely on a valuation headline or informal liquidity rumor, make sure the core facts are clear:

Equity type: Incentive stock options (ISOs), non-qualified stock options (NSOs), restricted stock units (RSUs), and exercised Anthropic shares each create different planning issues. You need to know whether you own a right to buy shares, a promise of future shares, or shares you already purchased.

Grant date and share ownership timeline: Your grant date can affect strike price, vesting, holding periods, and how older grants compare with newer grants issued when the company’s valuation was higher. If you have exercised options or otherwise acquired Anthropic equity, the dates and terms of actual share ownership may also determine whether a qualified small business stock (QSBS) review is worth pursuing. 

Strike price or cost basis: Your strike price is what you pay to exercise stock options. Your basis is generally what you have invested or already recognized for tax purposes, and it drives future gain, loss, and sale calculations.

409A or fair market value: A private-company 409A valuation can affect alternative minimum tax (AMT) exposure for ISOs and exercise income for NSOs. Before public markets create a visible share price, this valuation is often the key number used to model exercise taxes. 

Vesting and settlement terms: Vesting tells you when stock units or options become yours under the plan, while settlement tells you when shares are actually issued. For example, Anthropic RSUs with double-trigger terms may require both time-based vesting and an IPO before shares are delivered and taxed. 

Expiration and post-termination windows: Options can expire even if they are valuable. If you leave Anthropic before an IPO, your documents should tell you how long you have to exercise vested options and what you may lose by waiting.

Trading restrictions: Lockups may prevent sales for a set period after the IPO, while blackout windows can limit trading around earnings or major company updates. If your role gives you access to sensitive company information, Rule 10b5-1 may help reduce insider-trading concerns by documenting future sales under a plan created in advance.²

Minimize Taxes for Each Type of Anthropic Equity

A strong IPO planning process should connect each equity type to the tax event it may create. That matters because each type of Anthropic equity has a different tax treatment.  You need to understand what type of equity you have in order to be able to minimize your taxes when you sell that equity.

Anthropic employees can build meaningful wealth through ISOs, NSOs, and RSUs, but each path has its own pressure point. One may require cash before liquidity, one may create income automatically, and one may increase risk if too much value remains tied to one company.

ISOs: Model the AMT Before You Exercise 

An incentive stock option gives you the right to buy Anthropic stock at a fixed exercise price. The appeal is that if you exercise and meet the holding period rules, future gains may receive long-term capital gains treatment instead of being taxed like compensation.

The tax challenge starts when the current fair market value is higher than your exercise price. That difference may count for alternative minimum tax purposes, even though it is not regular ordinary income when you exercise, which is why qualified stock options need modeling before action. 

The AMT crossover point makes the decision easier to size. It estimates how many ISOs you may be able to exercise before AMT meaningfully increases, then helps you compare that amount with your cash reserves and concentration risk.

A thoughtful exercise strategy may involve exercising in smaller batches across tax years rather than waiting for one large exercise near the IPO. That approach still needs to fit your comfort level with holding private shares, your need for liquidity, and your broader investment strategy.

NSOs: Plan for Ordinary Income at Exercise

A non-qualified stock option gives you the ability to purchase company shares at a set exercise price. However, when you exercise the option, the gap between that price and the stock’s fair market value is typically treated as ordinary wage income, even if there is not yet a public market for the shares. 

Before exercising NSOs, review the numbers through these filters:

• Exercise cost: This is the cash needed to buy the shares. A pre-IPO exercise may look attractive on paper, but the cost must fit your savings, tax reserve, and tolerance for illiquid private investments.
• Ordinary income: The difference between your exercise price and the stock’s fair market value may be taxed as compensation at exercise. In some cases, that tax liability can arrive before you can sell shares for cash. 
• Bracket stacking: NSO income can land in the same year as salary, bonus, RSU settlement, tender proceeds, or investment gains. A large exercise in a crowded tax year may push more income into higher brackets. 
• Withholding gap: Payroll withholding may not cover the full tax bill from a large exercise. You may need separate cash for federal, state, local, and payroll tax exposure.
• Liquidity constraint: Exercising before an IPO can create tax pressure before there is a clear exit. The decision should account for how long you may need to hold illiquid securities.

RSUs: Prepare for Taxable Income Before Liquidity

Restricted stock units are usually easier to understand than options because you do not pay an exercise price. They are a promise to deliver shares once the required conditions are met, and the value is generally taxed as wage income when the units vest and settle.

If Anthropic has double-trigger RSUs, time-based vesting may not be enough by itself. A second trigger, often a liquidity event such as an IPO, may need to occur before the shares settle. If several years of vested units settle in one compressed period, the taxable income can be much larger than a normal annual vest.

Withholding can also fall short. Under IRS rules, supplemental wages are generally withheld at 22%, with a 37% rate applying once supplemental wages paid to an employee during the year exceed $1 million.³ If your full-year tax rate is higher than the withholding applied to your RSU settlement, you may still need a separate tax reserve. 

RSUs should not be confused with ISOs. Holding RSU shares after settlement may change the tax treatment of post-settlement gains, but the original settlement value has already been taxed as compensation. That is why Anthropic equity planning should treat RSUs as both an income event and a future single-stock position.

Plan for the IPO Year Before the IPO Arrives

The IPO year can combine multiple financial events that normally would not happen together. Salary, bonus, RSU settlement, exercise decision timing, tender proceeds, and sales from investments can all affect the same tax return.

The goal is to know what may be owed, when it may be owed, and where the cash will come from. Without that visibility, employees can end up selling under pressure, holding too much risk, or using cash that was meant for another goal.

Build a Tax Reserve Around Multiple Scenarios

Do not build the tax reserve around one assumed valuation, one assumed IPO date, or one best-case outcome. Your reserve should be tested against several possible paths:

• Current-value scenario: Estimate taxes using the most reliable company-approved value, current grant details, expected vesting, salary, and any planned exercises. This gives you a baseline before new IPO information changes the model.
• Lower IPO valuation scenario: A lower public valuation can still create taxes if RSUs settle, NSOs are exercised, or prior decisions created gain. Lower value does not automatically mean lower cash needs.
• Higher IPO valuation scenario: A higher value can increase RSU wage income, NSO exercise income, and ISO AMT exposure. It can also make concentration grow faster than your broader portfolio.
• Delayed IPO scenario: A delay can change vesting totals, AMT planning, expiration windows, and cash reserves. It may also give you more time to exercise carefully or create more accumulated RSU exposure.
• Same-year stacking scenario: Model what happens if salary, RSU settlement, option exercises, tender proceeds, and investment sales all land in the same year. This is where tax surprises often come from.
• Lockup cash-flow scenario: Estimate the cash needed if taxes are due before shares can be sold. This is especially important if Anthropic withholds less than your full tax liability.

Use Advanced Planning Only Where It Actually Fits

Some planning windows close quietly. By the time an IPO price is public, a lockup is underway, or a trading policy is active, strategies that once had flexibility may require more approvals, tighter timing, or a very different tax analysis.

This is where advanced planning can matter most for employees with older grants, exercised shares, charitable intent, or a large private-company position. The point is not to chase every tactic. It is to identify the few areas that could materially affect your family, taxes, and long-term strategy.

Review QSBS, Estate, and Gifting Questions Early

Early employees or employees who exercised shares may have planning questions that go beyond whether to exercise, sell, or hold. The key is to document what you own, when you acquired it, how it was acquired, and whether any transfer or tax strategy should be reviewed before a public valuation changes the planning environment.

These areas deserve careful review before you act:

• Basis records: Preserve exercise confirmations, grant agreements, 83(b) elections if applicable, and tax records. These records help determine what you paid, what may already have been taxed, and how future gain may be calculated.
• Acquisition history: Confirm when shares were acquired and whether they came from an exercise, purchase, settlement, or other event. QSBS, ISO treatment, capital gains planning, and gift planning may all depend on the exact ownership timeline.
• QSBS eligibility: Qualified small business stock under IRC Section 1202 can allow eligible taxpayers to exclude certain gains, but the rules are strict. Eligibility can depend on company status, original issuance, shareholder type, holding period, and other requirements.⁴
• Estate planning: A large private-company position may raise questions around trusts, gifting, control, future estate taxes, and who should benefit from the shares. These decisions are easier to evaluate before IPO pricing creates a clearer public value.
• Gift timing: Gifting private shares before an IPO may require transfer approval, valuation support, legal review, and enough liquidity to handle related taxes or personal cash needs. A gift should support the broader plan, not create a new cash-flow problem.

Coordinate Charitable Giving With Liquidity and Taxes 

Charitable giving can be a meaningful part of IPO planning when it reflects values you already hold. If you have appreciated Anthropic stock or a company-related giving commitment, the planning question is how to give without disrupting taxes, liquidity, or family goals.

Private company shares can be difficult to move. Before pledging or donating shares, confirm whether transfers are allowed, whether company approval is needed, how the shares would be valued, and whether a qualified appraisal may be required.

A donor-advised fund may be useful when you want to separate the timing of the tax deduction from the timing of future grants. That strategy still needs review around deduction limits, share eligibility, appraisal rules, and how much cash you need to keep available.

Please Note: The strongest charitable plan works alongside your liquidity plan. Taxes, lockup risk, near-term spending, and diversification should be reviewed first, so the gift supports your values while preserving a diversified asset base.

Anthropic IPO Planning FAQs

1. What Should Anthropic Employees Do First If an IPO Is Coming?

Determine how concentrated you are in Anthropic equity.  If you are 90% concentrated vs. 10% concentrated, you need to figure out a plan for your Anthropic equity because most of your net worth is dependent on 

2. How Are Anthropic ISOs Different From NSOs and RSUs?

ISOs may offer favorable tax treatment if holding periods are met, but they can trigger AMT. NSOs usually create ordinary income at exercise, while RSUs generally create wage income when they vest and settle.

3. Why Can Exercising ISOs Before an IPO Create AMT?

Exercising ISOs can trigger alternative minimum tax exposure because the spread between the exercise price and fair market value may be treated as AMT income. That means you could owe tax before the shares can be sold. 

4. What Happens If Double-Trigger RSUs Settle at the IPO?

If double-trigger RSUs satisfy both time-based vesting and the liquidity-event requirement, the units may settle and become taxable as wage income. That can create a large tax bill in one compressed period.

5. Can Anthropic Employees Sell Shares Immediately After an IPO?

Typically, with a traditional IPO, employees can’t sell for a 180-day lockup period, but this varies by company.  The exact rules depend on company documents and public company trading policies.

6. How Much Anthropic Stock Is Too Much to Hold After the IPO?

My general guideline is that more than 20% concentration in Anthropic of your total investable assets is too high because it is a much higher risk and volatility than a diversified portfolio.  The right amount depends on your goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, cash needs, and other assets. If Anthropic represents a large share of your net worth, it can be helpful to set a target range before trading begins.

We Help Anthropic Employees Prepare Before an IPO

Anthropic IPO planning is not one decision. It is a connected set of choices around equity type, tax timing, liquidity, concentration, and post-lockup execution. The sooner those pieces are organized, the easier it becomes to make decisions from a clear plan instead of reacting to a moving timeline.

I can help you review grants, model ISO, NSO, and RSU tax scenarios, estimate cash reserve needs, and prepare for possible lockup or trading restrictions. I can also help you understand how different exercise, tender, and sale choices may affect your broader financial picture.

I can coordinate diversification, charitable planning, QSBS questions, estate planning conversations, and a long-term wealth strategy built around a diversified asset base. If you would like help preparing before liquidity arrives, schedule a complimentary consultation with me.

 

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Resources: 

1. Anthropic Confidential Draft
2. SVB staff claim they got up to 50% of their salaries in company equity
3. Understanding Rules 10b5-1 Plans
4. IRS Publication 15
5. 26 U.S. Code § 1202